Creating severe weather model for arrival manager by analyzing the flight data of weather front passage

One of the characteristics in Japan airspace is that, air traffic is concentrated in the airspace of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Arrival manager with the concept of sequencing arrival flights prior to the destination airport is one of the subjects in the future ATM and related researches are carried out. Meteorological phenomena become uncertainty for predicting air traffic flow and air traffic control capacity. Realizing Trajectory-based Operation (TBO), the trajectory calculated in advance, will be flexibly adjusted to cope with meteorological changes and unexpected changes in circumstances. In this paper, weather front passage over destination airport is focused on, because the frontal surface causes significant change of wind direction, and wind shear that generates turbulence is also accompanied with weather front. In order to create severe model of weather front passage, actual flight data of weather front passing through the arrival airport is analyzed using flight tracks and Time-Space diagram. We also discuss the weather frontal surface configuration which becomes severe for flight time estimation and arrival manager of ATM.