Degradation detection for telecommunication networks using time varying binomial distribution models

In this paper, we deal with the degradation detection problem in telecommunication gateways. The time series to be monitored is non-stationary but almost periodic (pseudo-periodic). The authors propose a technique called 'optimization of partition model' which generates local stationary models for a pseudo-periodic time series. The optimization is based on the minimal AIC principle. The technique called SPRT is also applied to make efficient decisions. Experiments to evaluate methods for optimization and incremental model update are conducted with real data. The result shows the proposed method is effective and makes more precises decision than the conventional one.