Economic evaluations of residential energy systems based on the prediction-operational planning-control method using time-of-use prices

Demand-side electricity saving is an important factor in the reduction of the installed capacity of power-supply facilities. In order to save electricity automatically while maintaining comfort levels, home energy management systems (HEMS) have attracted attention. These systems can control residential energy equipment cooperatively to reduce electricity consumption while considering benefits to consumers. Although many researchers have evaluated HEMS, no one has conducted a study which considers the control of various types of residential energy equipment in real time along with the uncertainties of energy demands. This paper proposes a single HEMS method which connects prediction, operational planning and control steps and enables the evaluation of operational planning methods of HEMS connected with many kinds of residential energy equipment currently in use in Japan while considering the uncertainties. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the economic potential of residential energy systems based on the proposed method with the uncertainties of energy demands and photovoltaic (PV) output under time-of-use prices. The results allowed us to establish a framework to quantitatively evaluate the operational planning methods of HEMS with the uncertainties of energy demands and PV output. In addition, the usability of the proposed method was confirmed by comparing the operational costs to those of a reference method.