Envisioning sustainable manufacturing industries of japan

Yuji Mizuno*, Yusuke Kishita, Shinichi Fukushige, Yasushi Umeda

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)


In order to adapt to or overcome the difficulties Japan’s manufacturing industry is facing today, drawing normative future visions of sustainable manufacturing is required. The future is undeterminable, so the future visions cannot be fixed. Therefore, in order to draw visions of sustainable manufacturing of Japan, our research group has developed its Sustainable Manufacturing Scenario using the backcasting method. Here, a scenario is a set of stories detailing several future visions and transition paths toward them. Backcasting is a method of developing a scenario, one in which ideal future visions are developed, and then transition paths from the visions back to the present are drawn. To quantify and evaluate the future visions, we propose a model called SISA (Scenario-based Industrial Structure Analysis), which is based on Input-Output (I-O) tables. An I-O table quantitatively represents final consumption and transactions among industrial branches of a specific region in a specific period. In the SISA model, the I-O table representing future industry is given from the present I-O table, and several parameters reflect the hypotheses set in the scenario. Our research group has developed five different future visions of Japanese manufacturing industries. We set three future targets: GDP, employment, and CO2 . The visions are quantified on the SISA model and investigated as to whether they achieve the future targets or not. Based on this analysis, we have concluded that drastic technological change is required to achieve the CO2 target, and cooperation with service manufacturing is important if the employment target is to be met.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)634-643
Number of pages10
JournalInternational Journal of Automation Technology
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Sept 1
Externally publishedYes


  • Backcasting
  • Input-output tables
  • Scenario approach
  • Sustainability scenario
  • Sustainable manufacturing

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering


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