TY - JOUR
T1 - Excess deaths from COVID-19 in Japan and 47 prefectures from January through June 2021
AU - Nomura, S.
AU - Eguchi, A.
AU - Tanoue, Y.
AU - Yoneoka, D.
AU - Kawashima, T.
AU - Suzuki, M.
AU - Hashizume, M.
N1 - Funding Information:
The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan ( 21H03203 ). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s)
PY - 2022/2
Y1 - 2022/2
N2 - Objectives: In Japan, several studies have reported no excess all-cause deaths (the difference between the observed and expected number of deaths) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. This study aimed to estimate the weekly excess deaths in Japan's 47 prefectures for 2021 until June 27. Study design: Vital statistical data on deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. For this analysis, we used data from January 2012 to June 2021. Methods: A quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the expected weekly number of deaths. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the one-sided prediction interval. Results: Since January 2021, excess deaths were observed for the first time in the week corresponding to April 12–18 and have continued through mid-June, with the highest excess percentage occurring in the week corresponding to May 31–June 6 (excess deaths: 1431–2587; excess percentage: 5.95–10.77%). Similarly, excess deaths were observed in consecutive weeks from April to June 2021 in 18 of 47 prefectures. Conclusions: For the first time since February 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was reported in Japan, excess deaths possibly related to COVID-19 were observed in April 2021 in Japan, during the fourth wave. This may reflect the deaths of non-infected people owing to the disruption that the pandemic has caused.
AB - Objectives: In Japan, several studies have reported no excess all-cause deaths (the difference between the observed and expected number of deaths) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. This study aimed to estimate the weekly excess deaths in Japan's 47 prefectures for 2021 until June 27. Study design: Vital statistical data on deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. For this analysis, we used data from January 2012 to June 2021. Methods: A quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the expected weekly number of deaths. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the one-sided prediction interval. Results: Since January 2021, excess deaths were observed for the first time in the week corresponding to April 12–18 and have continued through mid-June, with the highest excess percentage occurring in the week corresponding to May 31–June 6 (excess deaths: 1431–2587; excess percentage: 5.95–10.77%). Similarly, excess deaths were observed in consecutive weeks from April to June 2021 in 18 of 47 prefectures. Conclusions: For the first time since February 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was reported in Japan, excess deaths possibly related to COVID-19 were observed in April 2021 in Japan, during the fourth wave. This may reflect the deaths of non-infected people owing to the disruption that the pandemic has caused.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85122436629&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85122436629&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.11.023
DO - 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.11.023
M3 - Article
C2 - 35016070
AN - SCOPUS:85122436629
SN - 0033-3506
VL - 203
SP - 15
EP - 18
JO - Public Health
JF - Public Health
ER -