@article{7780ec5e54ee4c18bcd0e0284711070f,
title = "Forecasting Japanese inflation with a news-based leading indicator of economic activities",
abstract = "We construct business cycle indexes based on the daily Japanese newspaper articles and estimate the Phillips curve model to forecast inflation at a daily frequency. We find that the news-based leading indicator, constructed from the topic on future economic conditions, is useful in forecasting the inflation rate in Japan.",
keywords = "Phillips curve, nowcasting, out-of-sample forecasting, text classification",
author = "Keiichi Goshima and Hiroshi Ishijima and Mototsugu Shintani and Hiroki Yamamoto",
note = "Funding Information: The authors would like to thank Shigenori Shiratsuka, Kumiko Tanaka, Tomohiro Tsuruga, Kozo Ueda and seminar and conference participants at the University of Tokyo, the 27th Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics in Dallas, the 2019 Summer Workshop on Economic Theory in Otaru, and the 2019 CUR Microeconometrics Conference on Survey Methodology and Data Science at Bank of Canada for useful comments and suggestions. Shintani greatly acknowledges the financial support of RCAST at the University of Tokyo, Grant-in-aid for Scientific Research 17H02510/20H01482 and the Joint Usage and Research Center Programs of IER at Hitotsubashi University. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official views of any institutions. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston.",
year = "2021",
month = sep,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1515/snde-2019-0117",
language = "English",
volume = "25",
pages = "111--133",
journal = "Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics",
issn = "1081-1826",
publisher = "Berkeley Electronic Press",
number = "4",
}