Forecasting of solar irradiance with just-in-time modeling

PV power output mainly depends on solar irradiance, which is affected by various meteorological factors. Thus, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecasting, in which we combine the black-box model (JIT modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over a wide controlled area of each electric power company by utilizing measured data from 44 observation points throughout Japan provided by JMA and 64 points around Kanto provided by NEDO. Finally, we propose an applied forecasting method of solar irradiance to deal with difficulties in compiling databases. We also consider the influence of different GPV default times on solar irradiance prediction.