Forecasting Replacement Demand of Durable Goods and the Induced Secondary Material Flows: A Case Study of Automobiles

Shigemi Kagawa; Shinichiro Nakamura; Yasushi Kondo; Kazuyo Matsubae; Tetsuya Nagasaka

doi:10.1111/jiec.12184

Forecasting Replacement Demand of Durable Goods and the Induced Secondary Material Flows: A Case Study of Automobiles

Shigemi Kagawa^*, Shinichiro Nakamura, Yasushi Kondo, Kazuyo Matsubae, Tetsuya Nagasaka

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Summary: The aim of this article is to propose a method for forecasting future secondary material flows by combining a product lifetime distribution analysis with a waste input-output analysis and present a simple case study of automobiles. The case study demonstrates that the proposed method enables us to estimate replacement demand of new vehicles, number of end-of-life (EOL) vehicles arising from the aging of vehicles, volume of shredder scraps recovered from EOL vehicles, and volume of shredder scraps required to meet final consumption in the future.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	10-19
Number of pages	10
Journal	Journal of Industrial Ecology
Volume	19
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12184
Publication status	Published - 2015 Feb 1
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Automobile
Industrial ecology
Product lifetime analysis
Replacement demand
Shredder scrap
Waste input-output analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Environmental Science(all)
Social Sciences(all)

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10.1111/jiec.12184

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abstract = "Summary: The aim of this article is to propose a method for forecasting future secondary material flows by combining a product lifetime distribution analysis with a waste input-output analysis and present a simple case study of automobiles. The case study demonstrates that the proposed method enables us to estimate replacement demand of new vehicles, number of end-of-life (EOL) vehicles arising from the aging of vehicles, volume of shredder scraps recovered from EOL vehicles, and volume of shredder scraps required to meet final consumption in the future.",

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AU - Kagawa, Shigemi

AU - Nakamura, Shinichiro

AU - Kondo, Yasushi

AU - Matsubae, Kazuyo

AU - Nagasaka, Tetsuya

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N2 - Summary: The aim of this article is to propose a method for forecasting future secondary material flows by combining a product lifetime distribution analysis with a waste input-output analysis and present a simple case study of automobiles. The case study demonstrates that the proposed method enables us to estimate replacement demand of new vehicles, number of end-of-life (EOL) vehicles arising from the aging of vehicles, volume of shredder scraps recovered from EOL vehicles, and volume of shredder scraps required to meet final consumption in the future.

AB - Summary: The aim of this article is to propose a method for forecasting future secondary material flows by combining a product lifetime distribution analysis with a waste input-output analysis and present a simple case study of automobiles. The case study demonstrates that the proposed method enables us to estimate replacement demand of new vehicles, number of end-of-life (EOL) vehicles arising from the aging of vehicles, volume of shredder scraps recovered from EOL vehicles, and volume of shredder scraps required to meet final consumption in the future.

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KW - Industrial ecology

KW - Product lifetime analysis

KW - Replacement demand

KW - Shredder scrap

KW - Waste input-output analysis

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Forecasting Replacement Demand of Durable Goods and the Induced Secondary Material Flows: A Case Study of Automobiles

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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