Framework for estimating the risk and resilience of road networks with bridges and embankments under both seismic and tsunami hazards

Hiroki Ishibashi, Mitsuyoshi Akiyama*, Dan M. Frangopol, Shunichi Koshimura, Takayuki Kojima, Kengo Nanami

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

27 Citations (Scopus)


To develop disaster mitigation measures in coastal regions affected by earthquakes, it is important to consider the effects of both seismic and tsunami hazards on road structures and assess the social impacts associated with the economic loss and reduction in network functionality. In this paper, a risk- and resilience-based assessment framework is established for road networks under both seismic and tsunami hazards. In the proposed methodology, the risk and resilience are quantified by the economic loss and postdisaster functionality of road networks, respectively. Uncertainties associated with estimations of fault movement, hazard intensity and structural vulnerability are considered when estimating the failure probability using Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, structural vulnerability against tsunamis is estimated considering the effects of ground motion-induced damage on the reduction in tsunami capacity. As an illustrative example, the road networks in two Japanese cities expected to be affected by the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake, which would cause strong ground motions and a subsequent tsunami, are analyzed. Finally, the retrofitting prioritization for various structures is discussed based on the risk and resilience quantified as performance indicators for social impacts.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)494-514
Number of pages21
JournalStructure and Infrastructure Engineering
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2020


  • Bridges
  • embankments
  • fragility curves
  • resilience
  • risk
  • road networks
  • seismic hazard
  • tsunami hazard

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Building and Construction
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Ocean Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering


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