@article{d4d9f6341cb2450c972b4b077ea88122,
title = "Impact of global warming on rice production in Japan based on five coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs",
abstract = "This study updates the projection of global warming impact on rice production in Japan using five coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) products under the SRES A1B scenario. Projection of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily total solar radiation for each AOGCM product are fed to a regional-scale rice model by which the rice heading day and yield are simulated. Most climate model results show that while the heading day becomes significantly earlier, the yield mostly remains in the range of interannual variability of the present climate. Projected future yield shows a distinct pattern of increase in the northern Japan and decrease in the southwestern Japan, with exception in parts of Kyushu. Projected yield change in the central Japan differs depending on the location of the prefecture. The trend of change in yield is consistent among simulation years in the northern and central Japan whereas it varies year-to-year in the southwestern Japan. The variance in yield over southwestern Japan possibly becomes larger due to heat stress as a result of global warming.",
author = "Toshichika Iizumi and Hori, {Masatake E.} and Masayuki Yokozawa and Hiroshi Nakagawa and Yousay Hayashi and Fujio Kimura",
note = "Funding Information: We acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the PCMDI for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR WGCM and their CMIP and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. This work is supported by the Global Environmental Research Fund (S4) by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. This research was partially supported by the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific research Category B, 1731000. The authors appreciate Dr. H. Ueda of the University of Tsukuba for technical support. The authors also appreciate ICCAP (Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production System in the Arid Areas) Project of Research Institute for Human and Nature for inspiring the analysis framework. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2006, the Meteorological Society of Japan.",
year = "2006",
doi = "10.2151/sola.2006-040",
language = "English",
volume = "2",
pages = "156--159",
journal = "Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere",
issn = "1349-6476",
publisher = "Meteorological Society of Japan",
}
