Model assessment of public–private partnership flood insurance systems: an empirical study of Japan

Jie Shao*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)


The public–private partnership (or PPP) system is widely hailed as an effective approach to flood insurance. PPP effectiveness can be empirically demonstrated through an analytic framework based on model assessment, which we apply to Japan as an illustrative case study. We first introduce the widely-observed market failure phenomenon in the catastrophe insurance sector and how PPP systems may serve to avert this failure. We then proceed to select three candidate systems and model them respectively. Subsequently, we employ empirical data and Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate suitability for Japan’s case via three perspectives. The results identified the market-oriented system as the economically-optimal choice. It should be noted, however, that the assessment is dependent on the priorities of each party and market-negotiated results. We find this methodology to be suitable for identifying the most adequate PPP system and invite policymakers to consider its use when implementing their own systems.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)79-102
Number of pages24
JournalGeneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2022 Jan


  • Case study
  • Comparative analysis
  • Empirical analysis
  • Monte Carlo
  • PPP flood insurance
  • Ruin theory

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Accounting
  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics


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