Modeling cyclone-related precipitation changes in future climates using WRF model and CMIP5 output data

Martin Mäll; Ülo Suursaar; Tomoya Shibayama; Ryota Nakamura

doi:10.1109/IGARSS.2019.8900309

Modeling cyclone-related precipitation changes in future climates using WRF model and CMIP5 output data

Martin Mäll, Ülo Suursaar, Tomoya Shibayama, Ryota Nakamura

School of Creative Science and Engineering

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Heavy precipitation from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can have serious environmental and societal impacts. The aim of the study is to model changes in ETC-related precipitation in the Baltic Sea area by the end of 21st century. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble output, the IPCC proposed RCP8.5 future scenario, and two hindcasted ETCs (Jan 2005, Nov 2008), we study these storms in projected future (i.e. "surrogate") conditions. The results showed up to 20-30% increase in precipitation; the spatial shifts and variability within the modeling domains were still substantial.

Original language	English
Pages	7590-7593
Number of pages	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2019.8900309
Publication status	Published - 2019
Event	39th IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2019 - Yokohama, Japan Duration: 2019 Jul 28 → 2019 Aug 2

Conference

Conference	39th IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2019
Country/Territory	Japan
City	Yokohama
Period	19/7/28 → 19/8/2

Keywords

Baltic Sea
Floods
Global warming
Pseudo-climate modeling
Storms

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Computer Science Applications
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

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10.1109/IGARSS.2019.8900309

Cite this

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title = "Modeling cyclone-related precipitation changes in future climates using WRF model and CMIP5 output data",

abstract = "Heavy precipitation from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can have serious environmental and societal impacts. The aim of the study is to model changes in ETC-related precipitation in the Baltic Sea area by the end of 21st century. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble output, the IPCC proposed RCP8.5 future scenario, and two hindcasted ETCs (Jan 2005, Nov 2008), we study these storms in projected future (i.e. {"}surrogate{"}) conditions. The results showed up to 20-30% increase in precipitation; the spatial shifts and variability within the modeling domains were still substantial.",

keywords = "Baltic Sea, Floods, Global warming, Pseudo-climate modeling, Storms",

author = "Martin M{\"a}ll and {\"U}lo Suursaar and Tomoya Shibayama and Ryota Nakamura",

note = "Funding Information: The study was supported by the Estonian Research Council grant PUT1439, grant No. 17H06760 by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and performed as a part of activities of Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University. We thank WRF, NCEP, ESTEA. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 IEEE.; 39th IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2019 ; Conference date: 28-07-2019 Through 02-08-2019",

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doi = "10.1109/IGARSS.2019.8900309",

language = "English",

pages = "7590--7593",

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AU - Mäll, Martin

AU - Suursaar, Ülo

AU - Shibayama, Tomoya

AU - Nakamura, Ryota

N1 - Funding Information: The study was supported by the Estonian Research Council grant PUT1439, grant No. 17H06760 by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and performed as a part of activities of Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University. We thank WRF, NCEP, ESTEA. Publisher Copyright: © 2019 IEEE.

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - Heavy precipitation from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can have serious environmental and societal impacts. The aim of the study is to model changes in ETC-related precipitation in the Baltic Sea area by the end of 21st century. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble output, the IPCC proposed RCP8.5 future scenario, and two hindcasted ETCs (Jan 2005, Nov 2008), we study these storms in projected future (i.e. "surrogate") conditions. The results showed up to 20-30% increase in precipitation; the spatial shifts and variability within the modeling domains were still substantial.

AB - Heavy precipitation from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can have serious environmental and societal impacts. The aim of the study is to model changes in ETC-related precipitation in the Baltic Sea area by the end of 21st century. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble output, the IPCC proposed RCP8.5 future scenario, and two hindcasted ETCs (Jan 2005, Nov 2008), we study these storms in projected future (i.e. "surrogate") conditions. The results showed up to 20-30% increase in precipitation; the spatial shifts and variability within the modeling domains were still substantial.

KW - Baltic Sea

KW - Floods

KW - Global warming

KW - Pseudo-climate modeling

KW - Storms

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DO - 10.1109/IGARSS.2019.8900309

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SP - 7590

EP - 7593

T2 - 39th IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2019

Y2 - 28 July 2019 through 2 August 2019

ER -

Modeling cyclone-related precipitation changes in future climates using WRF model and CMIP5 output data

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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