Modeling parameters and impacts of future cyclones: South-east asian and northern european case studies

Martin Mäll; Ülo Suursaar; Ryota Nakamura; Khandker Masuma Tasnim; Tomoya Shibayama

doi:10.1109/IGARSS.2019.8900193

Modeling parameters and impacts of future cyclones: South-east asian and northern european case studies

Martin Mäll, Ülo Suursaar, Ryota Nakamura, Khandker Masuma Tasnim, Tomoya Shibayama

School of Creative Science and Engineering

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to analyse and compare the possible future parameters of four extreme cyclonic storms (Nargis in 2008, Haiyan in 2013, Gudrun in 2005, St. Jude 2013) as they would occur in the end of 21st century under warming climatic conditions. Using a modeling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) atmospheric model, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), and surrogate background conditions taken from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) output in line with the IPCC proposed RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios. The results generally showed an intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) and corresponding increase in storm surge heights. In case of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), the future changes were either smaller or less clear.

Original language	English
Pages	9346-9349
Number of pages	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2019.8900193
Publication status	Published - 2019
Event	39th IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2019 - Yokohama, Japan Duration: 2019 Jul 28 → 2019 Aug 2

Conference

Conference	39th IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2019
Country/Territory	Japan
City	Yokohama
Period	19/7/28 → 19/8/2

Keywords

ETCs
Global warming
Pseudo-climate modeling
Storm surges
TCs
Typhoons

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Computer Science Applications
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

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10.1109/IGARSS.2019.8900193

Cite this

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title = "Modeling parameters and impacts of future cyclones: South-east asian and northern european case studies",

abstract = "The purpose of the paper is to analyse and compare the possible future parameters of four extreme cyclonic storms (Nargis in 2008, Haiyan in 2013, Gudrun in 2005, St. Jude 2013) as they would occur in the end of 21st century under warming climatic conditions. Using a modeling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) atmospheric model, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), and surrogate background conditions taken from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) output in line with the IPCC proposed RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios. The results generally showed an intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) and corresponding increase in storm surge heights. In case of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), the future changes were either smaller or less clear.",

keywords = "ETCs, Global warming, Pseudo-climate modeling, Storm surges, TCs, Typhoons",

author = "Martin M{\"a}ll and {\"U}lo Suursaar and Ryota Nakamura and Tasnim, {Khandker Masuma} and Tomoya Shibayama",

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doi = "10.1109/IGARSS.2019.8900193",

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T2 - 39th IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2019

AU - Mäll, Martin

AU - Suursaar, Ülo

AU - Nakamura, Ryota

AU - Tasnim, Khandker Masuma

AU - Shibayama, Tomoya

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - The purpose of the paper is to analyse and compare the possible future parameters of four extreme cyclonic storms (Nargis in 2008, Haiyan in 2013, Gudrun in 2005, St. Jude 2013) as they would occur in the end of 21st century under warming climatic conditions. Using a modeling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) atmospheric model, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), and surrogate background conditions taken from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) output in line with the IPCC proposed RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios. The results generally showed an intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) and corresponding increase in storm surge heights. In case of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), the future changes were either smaller or less clear.

AB - The purpose of the paper is to analyse and compare the possible future parameters of four extreme cyclonic storms (Nargis in 2008, Haiyan in 2013, Gudrun in 2005, St. Jude 2013) as they would occur in the end of 21st century under warming climatic conditions. Using a modeling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) atmospheric model, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), and surrogate background conditions taken from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) output in line with the IPCC proposed RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios. The results generally showed an intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) and corresponding increase in storm surge heights. In case of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), the future changes were either smaller or less clear.

KW - ETCs

KW - Global warming

KW - Pseudo-climate modeling

KW - Storm surges

KW - TCs

KW - Typhoons

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ER -

Modeling parameters and impacts of future cyclones: South-east asian and northern european case studies

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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