Modelling, analysis and risk evaluation of resource circulation in Asia

Abstract: A considerable amount of resources is exchanged among Japan and other Asian countries. We call it 'global circulation'. Although such circulation currently causes various environmental pollutions, it will become a hopeful measure for resource conservation. For clarifying the conditions for sustainable global circulation, we evaluate several scenarios of the global circulation from the viewpoints of economic and environmental aspects. When modelling the global circulation, we inevitably encounter two types of uncertainty, i.e. unexpected events and insufficient practical data. This article represents such uncertainty as risks and data width. The simulation results indicate that a product reuse scenario is the most promising for the sustainable global circulation. Concerning recycling scenarios, the risks are higher than those of reuse scenarios. This article also points out that the traceability, one of the most crucial elements for constructing the sustainable global circulation, can be measured by the risks.copyright