Pluses and minuses of climate change on major cereal cultivation in Asia

This paper describes the impacts of climate change on major cereal crops, i.e., rice, wheat and maize, in Asia using results from simulation studies using the CCSR (Center for Climate System Research, the University of Tokyo) GCM (Global Climate Model). Climate change could cause the air temperature and precipitation to become unsuitable for major cereal cultivation in Asia. To predict the impacts of climate change on sustainable cropping and agricultural development, we evaluated changes in climatic conditions in Asia in major cereal cropping seasons. We used the monthly average temperature and precipitation data from the 1961-90 mean climatology and CCSR GCM. We analyzed changes in the mean temperature and precipitation of major cereal-producing regions at different cropping seasons from the present through the 2090s. Climate change will generally increase both the air temperature and precipitation in Asia. The impacts of climate change have two sides: plus and minus. The increase in the air temperature and precipitation will be disadvantageous to wheat cropping in Asia. In contrast, some regions in subtropical Asia will have excess water resources during the rainy season. Precautionary measures against flooding will be needed in these areas.