Prediction interval estimation of 10 second PV output fluctuation in the next day

Nao Kumekawa, Hayato Homma, Shinji Wakao*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


Photovoltaic(PV) power generation systems have gained much attention against a background of energy and environmental problems. However, the output of PV system depends on climate conditions. Therefore, a mass introduction of PV results in the power quality deterioration in the distribution system. To overcome the difficulty, it is effective to introduce Low Voltage Regulator(LVR) to the distribution system. However, the application of LVR brings a new problem, i.e., a control delay for activating the tap after detecting the fluctuation. With this background, to provide more useful predictive information in advance, this paper deals with a novel prediction interval estimation method of 10 second PV fluctuation with two-dimensional kernel density estimation. We also carry out the prediction by using several different methods for comparison, e.g., the conventional method with one-dimensional kernel density estimation and the application of various smoothing methods to this conventional method. Finally, some numerical results, which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on the basis of several indexes, are also presented.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5-13
Number of pages9
JournalIEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Jan 1


  • 10 second fluctuation
  • PV output
  • Prediction interval estimation
  • Smoothing method
  • Two-dimensional kernel density method

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering


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