Prediction of PV Output Transition by Means of Estimated Confidence Interval

Naohiro Koura, Ritsuya Watanabe, Shinji Wakao*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


In our previous study, we carried out confidence interval estimation of next-day photovoltaic (PV) output with just-in-time modeling hour by hour. When the target reliability is high in particular, the width of the confidence interval becomes large certainly. Therefore, in this paper, based on behavior of the measured PV output in the morning of the targeted day, we predict of PV output transition in the estimated confidence interval in the afternoon. The proposed method, which is consistently based on black box modeling, enables us to easily and effectively narrow the confidence interval width, i.e., sharpness, of PV output. Some numerical examples, which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, are also reported.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)802-808
Number of pages7
JournalIEEJ Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 2020 May 1


  • confidence interval estimation
  • just-in-time modeling
  • photovoltaic (PV) power generation
  • transition prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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