TY - GEN
T1 - Proposal of a design support method for sustainability scenarios 1st report
T2 - Designing forecasting scenarios
AU - Wada, Haruna
AU - Kishita, Yusuke
AU - Mizuno, Yuji
AU - Hirosaki, Maki
AU - Fukushige, Shinichi
AU - Umeda, Yasushi
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - Although there are many scenario description methods, computational support has not been provided for scenario design. This paper proposes a method for supporting design of forecasting scenarios. This method supports determining storylines, which are key assumptions of sub scenarios, and describing sub scenarios based on the causal network and storyline. As a case study for verifying feasibility of this method, we described a forecasting scenario about changes of automobile industry when electric vehicles are diffused. Results illustrate that the usage of causal networks effectively supports generating storylines. Also, describing scenario texts is supported by detailing causal networks and the storylines.
AB - Although there are many scenario description methods, computational support has not been provided for scenario design. This paper proposes a method for supporting design of forecasting scenarios. This method supports determining storylines, which are key assumptions of sub scenarios, and describing sub scenarios based on the causal network and storyline. As a case study for verifying feasibility of this method, we described a forecasting scenario about changes of automobile industry when electric vehicles are diffused. Results illustrate that the usage of causal networks effectively supports generating storylines. Also, describing scenario texts is supported by detailing causal networks and the storylines.
KW - Forecasting scenario
KW - Scenario design
KW - Sustainability scenarios
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80052116155&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=80052116155&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-642-19692-8_33
DO - 10.1007/978-3-642-19692-8_33
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:80052116155
SN - 9783642196911
T3 - Glocalized Solutions for Sustainability in Manufacturing - Proceedings of the 18th CIRP International Conference on Life Cycle Engineering
SP - 189
EP - 194
BT - Glocalized Solutions for Sustainability in Manufacturing - Proceedings of the 18th CIRP International Conference on Life Cycle Engineering
PB - Springer Science and Business Media, LLC
ER -
