Scenario design approach to envisioning regional electricity networks with photovoltaics and electric vehicles

Toward realizing a low-carbon society, a variety of green products have been disseminated, such as photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles (EVs). While the dissemination of such green products will result in changes of electricity demand in a region, it is unclear to what extent the dissemination of these products will influence on regional electricity networks (or electrical grids) in the future. To explore regional electricity networks that might occur in the future, this paper describes plural scenarios that illustrate different situations in terms of the diffusion of PV and EVs. A simulation model is developed for estimating the diffusion of PV and EVs as well as regional electricity demand. As a case study, five scenarios of regional electricity networks in Toyonaka City, Osaka, Japan are described assuming the year 2030. The results demonstrate that the numbers of PV and EVs largely differ depending on social situations surrounding the electricity networks, such as national energy policies. Moreover, it is shown that utilizing EVs as batteries has the potential of reducing the peak of electricity demand from the electricity network by 46-48%.