Morphological analysis is one of important topics in the field of NLP(Natural Language Processing). In many previous research a HMM(Hidden Markov Model) with unknown parameters has been used as a language model. In this research we also use the HMM as the language model. And we assume that sate transitions in the HMM are dominated by a second order Markov chain. At first we propose two types of morphological analysis methods which minimize the error rate with reference to a Bayes criterion. But the computational complexity of the proposed Bayes optimal morphological analysis methods are exponential order. So we also propose approximate methods.