A spatiotemporally resolved optimization model for achieving a 30% Renewable Energy target in the Nigerian power system

Harnessing the abundant Renewable Energy (RE) sources in Nigeria is one of the key strategies to improve electricity access and sustainability and ultimately improve the standard of living. Consequently, the Nigerian government set a target to increase its installed capacity to at least 32 GW with about 30% share from RE in 2030. To evaluate the efficacy of the planned policy and identify the optimal pathway for integrating RE into Nigeria's power system, we developed a spatially and temporally resolved model that minimizes total power system cost using linear programming. The computational results recommend deploying solar PV and onshore wind power in northern Nigeria, where resource availability is high. Simulation results from this study suggest an alternative pathway to meeting the 30% RE targets set by the government, with an estimated annual economic benefit of $2.1 billion. The results of this work also showed that hydro, which is geographically limited, will continue to dominate the RE share due to its high availability compared to solar PV and onshore wind, as well as an increasing reliance on inter-nodal transmission in the northern region. Our findings indicate that onshore wind faces economic challenges due to its relatively high levelized cost of electricity, while solar PV emerges as a more competitive option, suggesting the enactment of policies, such as tax credits and subsidies for solar PV and storage facilities, to increase solar PV's share in the Nigerian generation mix.