Collective opinion formation model under Bayesian updating and confirmation bias

Ryosuke Nishi*, Naoki Masuda


研究成果: Article査読

11 被引用数 (Scopus)


We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in the context of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone to misperceive new incoming information as supporting the current belief of the individual. Our model modifies a Bayesian decision-making model for single individuals for the case of a well-mixed population of interacting individuals in the absence of the external input. We numerically simulate the model to show that all the agents eventually agree on one of the two opinions only when the confirmation bias is weak. Otherwise, the stochastic population dynamics ends up creating a disagreement configuration (also called polarization), particularly for large system sizes. A strong confirmation bias allows various final disagreement configurations with different fractions of the individuals in favor of the opposite opinions.

ジャーナルPhysical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
出版ステータスPublished - 2013 6月 18

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 統計物理学および非線形物理学
  • 統計学および確率
  • 凝縮系物理学


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