Dynamics and genealogy of strains in spatially extended host-pathogen models

Erik M. Rauch*, Hiroki Sayama, Yaneer Bar-Yam


研究成果: Article査読

34 被引用数 (Scopus)


We examine the dynamics of evolution in a generic spatial model of a pathogen infecting a population of hosts, or an analogous predator-prey system. Previous studies of this model have found a range of interesting phenomena that differ from the well-mixed version. We extend these studies by examining the spatial and temporal dynamics of strains using genealogical tracing. When transmissibility can evolve by mutation, strains of intermediate transmissibility dominate even though high-transmissibility mutants have a short-term reproductive advantage. Mutant strains continually arise and grow rapidly for many generations but eventually go extinct before dominating the system. We find that, after a number of generations, the mutant pathogen characteristics strongly impact the spatial distribution of their local host environment, even when there are diverse types coexisting. Extinction is due to the depletion of susceptibles in the local environment of these mutant strains. Studies of spatial and genealogical relatedness reveal the self-organized spatial clustering of strains that enables their impact on the local environment. Thus, we find that selection acts against the high-transmissibility strains on long time-scales as a result of the feedback due to environmental change. Our study shows that averages over space or time should not be assumed to adequately describe the evolutionary dynamics of spatially distributed host-pathogen systems.

ジャーナルJournal of Theoretical Biology
出版ステータスPublished - 2003 4月 21

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 統計学および確率
  • モデリングとシミュレーション
  • 生化学、遺伝学、分子生物学(全般)
  • 免疫学および微生物学(全般)
  • 農業および生物科学(全般)
  • 応用数学


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