A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future due to the warming effect of greenhouse gases on surface sea temperatures. The aim of this paper is to establish what would be the likely decrease in the productivity of urban workers due to an increase in tropical cyclone-related downtime. The methodology used simulates future tropical cyclones by magnifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. It then uses a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. It shows how annual downtime from tropical cyclones could increase from 1.5% nowadays to up to 2.2% by 2085, an increase of almost 50%. This decrease in productivity could result in a loss of up to 0.7% of the annual Taiwanese GDP by 2085.
|出版ステータス||Published - 2009|
ASJC Scopus subject areas