Extended Bayesian inference incorporating symmetry bias

Shuji Shinohara*, Nobuhito Manome, Kouta Suzuki, Ung il Chung, Tatsuji Takahashi, Pegio Yukio Gunji, Yoshihiro Nakajima, Shunji Mitsuyoshi


研究成果: Article査読

3 被引用数 (Scopus)


We start by proposing a causal induction model that incorporates symmetry bias. This model has two parameters that control the strength of symmetry bias and includes conditional probability and conventional models of causal induction as special cases. We calculated the determination coefficients between assessments by participants in eight types of causal induction experiments and the estimated values using the proposed model. The mean coefficient of determination was 0.93. Thus, it can reproduce causal induction of human judgment with high accuracy. We further propose a human-like Bayesian inference method to replace the conditional probability in Bayesian inference with the aforementioned causal induction model. In this method, two components coexist: the component of Bayesian inference, which updates the degree of confidence for each hypothesis, and the component of inverse Bayesian inference that modifies the model of each hypothesis. In other words, this method allows not only inference but also simultaneous learning. Our study demonstrates that the method addresses unsteady situations where the target of inference occasionally changes not only by making inferences based on knowledge (model) and observation data, but also by modifying the model itself.

出版ステータスPublished - 2020 4月

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 統計学および確率
  • モデリングとシミュレーション
  • 生化学、遺伝学、分子生物学(全般)
  • 応用数学


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