Global warming and tropical cyclone damage to housing in the Philippines

Miguel Esteban*, Per Stromberg, Alexandros Gasparatos, Dexter Thompson-Pomeroy

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Article査読

7 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

It is currently feared that the increase in surface sea temperature resulting from increasing levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere could result in higher tropical cyclone intensity in the future. Although the economic consequences have been studied for a number of developed countries, very little work has been done on developing countries. The present paper assesses the likely effects that increased typhoon intensity will have on damage to housing by the year 2085 in the Philippines, using a Monte Carlo simulation that magnifies the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. The simulation shows that direct damage to housing could increase between 17 and 58%, depending on the adaptive capacity of each region in the Philippines and assuming the latter remains constant between now and 2085. The results clearly suggest the need to increase the resilience of local communities against the possible consequences of climate change.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)51-60
ページ数10
ジャーナルClimate Research
56
1
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2013

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 環境化学
  • 環境科学一般
  • 大気科学

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