Increase in Port Downtime and Damage in Vietnam Due To a Potential Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity

It is currently feared that the increase in surface sea temperature resulting from increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could result in an increase in tropical cyclone intensity in the future. Although the economic consequences have been studied for a number of developed countries, very little work has been done on developing countries. The present paper attempts to indicate what are the likely economic effects of this, by using a Monte Carlo simulation that magnifies the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. This tropical cyclone model is then coupled with a socioeconomic model that attempts to provide a projection of the likely development course of the Vietnamese economy and society. The simulation shows how annual downtime from tropical cyclones could increase from 0.23 to 0.37% by 2085 which could cause the loss of between 0.015 and 0.035% of GDP growth per year (between 600 bn and 1,400 m USD after factoring in the likely growth in the Vietnamese economy by this time). The effect that this could have on port operations and a preliminary assessment on the potential for increases in direct damage due to high winds are also made, showing a typical 33 to 65% increase for the centre and north of the country.