TY - JOUR
T1 - Metapopulation models imply non-Poissonian statistics of interevent times
AU - Fonseca Dos Reis, Elohim
AU - Masuda, Naoki
N1 - Funding Information:
E.F.d.R. acknowledges the support by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento do Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES) – Finance Code 001. N.M. thanks the AFOSR European Office (under Grant no. FA9550-19-1-7024), the Nakatani Foundation, the Sumitomo Foundation, and Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) Moonshot R&D (under grant no. JPMJMS2021) for financial support.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 authors. Published by the American Physical Society.
PY - 2022/3
Y1 - 2022/3
N2 - Interevent times in temporal contact data from humans and animals typically obey heavy-tailed distributions, which impacts contagion and other dynamical processes on networks. We theoretically show that distributions of interevent times heavier-tailed than exponential distributions are a consequence of the most basic metapopulation model used in epidemiology and ecology, in which individuals move from one patch to another according to the simple random walk. Our results hold true irrespective of the network structure and also for more realistic mobility rules such as high-order random walks and the recurrent mobility patterns used for modeling human dynamics.
AB - Interevent times in temporal contact data from humans and animals typically obey heavy-tailed distributions, which impacts contagion and other dynamical processes on networks. We theoretically show that distributions of interevent times heavier-tailed than exponential distributions are a consequence of the most basic metapopulation model used in epidemiology and ecology, in which individuals move from one patch to another according to the simple random walk. Our results hold true irrespective of the network structure and also for more realistic mobility rules such as high-order random walks and the recurrent mobility patterns used for modeling human dynamics.
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U2 - 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.4.013050
DO - 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.4.013050
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85123750067
SN - 2643-1564
VL - 4
JO - Physical Review Research
JF - Physical Review Research
IS - 1
M1 - 013050
ER -