Middle-class risk perception of disasters and land reclamation in Metro Manila, Philippines

The United Nations estimate that by 2030 about half of the world’s population would be comprised of the middle-class, who mostly live in the increasing number of megacities around the world. Southeast Asian megacities, such as Metropolitan Manila, have long been troubled by rapid urbanization, increasing disaster risk, and the looming impacts of climate change. As a response, there is a growing focus on disaster and climate resilient policies in megacities, most of which have only centered on how future disasters and climate uncertainty would impact vulnerable communities. This has resulted in policies that cater towards relocation of the poor to combat disasters and climate change. This exploratory study attempts to elucidate how the middle-class views disasters and land reclamation in Metro Manila, the Philippines. Using an online questionnaire survey of 425 middle-class respondents, the study shows that middle-class perception of risk potentially amplifies vulnerability and reduces the resilience of the poor. While knowledge about the risks is high, the capacity of the middle class to act is low, especially compared to vulnerable communities. Also, climate change and disasters are viewed primarily as environmental issues, which is compounded by inadequate defenses. Land reclamation, along with coastal informal settlements, are viewed as an intrusion into the environment. This study finds that the middle-class’s perception of risk may marginalize the poor by favoring eviction of vulnerable communities in coastal areas, including those targeted for land reclamation, under the pretext of controlling the city’s population growth and environmental impact.