TY - CONF
T1 - Modeling cyclone-related precipitation changes in future climates using WRF model and CMIP5 output data
AU - Mäll, Martin
AU - Suursaar, Ülo
AU - Shibayama, Tomoya
AU - Nakamura, Ryota
N1 - Funding Information:
The study was supported by the Estonian Research Council grant PUT1439, grant No. 17H06760 by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and performed as a part of activities of Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University. We thank WRF, NCEP, ESTEA.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 IEEE.
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - Heavy precipitation from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can have serious environmental and societal impacts. The aim of the study is to model changes in ETC-related precipitation in the Baltic Sea area by the end of 21st century. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble output, the IPCC proposed RCP8.5 future scenario, and two hindcasted ETCs (Jan 2005, Nov 2008), we study these storms in projected future (i.e. "surrogate") conditions. The results showed up to 20-30% increase in precipitation; the spatial shifts and variability within the modeling domains were still substantial.
AB - Heavy precipitation from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can have serious environmental and societal impacts. The aim of the study is to model changes in ETC-related precipitation in the Baltic Sea area by the end of 21st century. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble output, the IPCC proposed RCP8.5 future scenario, and two hindcasted ETCs (Jan 2005, Nov 2008), we study these storms in projected future (i.e. "surrogate") conditions. The results showed up to 20-30% increase in precipitation; the spatial shifts and variability within the modeling domains were still substantial.
KW - Baltic Sea
KW - Floods
KW - Global warming
KW - Pseudo-climate modeling
KW - Storms
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U2 - 10.1109/IGARSS.2019.8900309
DO - 10.1109/IGARSS.2019.8900309
M3 - Paper
AN - SCOPUS:85107382561
SP - 7590
EP - 7593
T2 - 39th IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2019
Y2 - 28 July 2019 through 2 August 2019
ER -
