This paper presents possibility of voltage deviations based on Fuzzy-neuro Autoregressive model. Under the situation that deregulation and the liberalization advance to, it becomes difficult to predict an electricity demand precisely. Furthermore, it is concerned about voltage deviation due to increase of electricity demand deviation. Therefore, in this paper, the power demand of next day is predicted using neural network from data observed constant periods in the past. In the next, the uncertainly of predicted power demand is showed using fuzzy model. Therefore, it enables to predict not only one power demand but also both upper and lower appearance probability by this proposal method. Then, the optimal power flow calculation is solved to predict the voltage deviation possibility. Moreover, in this paper voltage setting is done by arranging the voltage control equipment based on the requested voltage possibility forecast value.
|ホスト出版物のタイトル||Proceedings of the Eighth IASTED International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Control, ISC 2005|
|出版ステータス||Published - 2005|
|イベント||Eighth IASTED International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Control, ISC 2005 - Cambridge, MA|
継続期間: 2005 10月 31 → 2005 11月 2
|Other||Eighth IASTED International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Control, ISC 2005|
|Period||05/10/31 → 05/11/2|
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