Predicting the infection probability distribution of airborne and droplet transmissions

Herein, a method is proposed to predict the infection probability distribution rather than the room-averaged value. The infection probability is predicted by considering both airborne and droplet transmissions based on CO₂ concentration and the position of the occupants in a room. The proposed method was used in an actual office setting, and the results confirmed that it could provide a quantitative prediction of the infection probability by integrating the ventilation efficiency and the distance between occupants (i.e. social distancing). We verified the ability of the method to analyse the relative effectiveness of countermeasures for airborne and droplet transmissions. The proposed strategies can be implemented by a facility manager and can enable facility users to check the infection probability distribution in real-time to select a seat with the minimum risk of infection.