The probability of quench caused by abrupt motion of a conductor is discussed in this paper. There are fluctuations in the contact forces in the interfaces between the conductors and the spacers which are caused by local bending of the conductor and fluctuations in the dimensions of the spacer. Conductor motion occurs where the contact force is not enough to support the conductor. In this analysis, it is assumed that any irregularity of the conductor and spacer follows Gaussian stochastic processes, and the probability of conductor motion and the number of premature quenches expected are quantitatively calculated.
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