Probable effects of CO₂-induced climatic changes on net primary productivity of terrestrial vegetation in East Asia

Changes in the net primary productivity (NPP) of natural vegetation of monsoon East Asia were simulated under three, doubled CO₂-climate scenarios (GISS, GFDL and UKMO). These three scenarios and baseline climate data were converted to grids of 1^o×1^o meshes. The gridded climatic data were used together with the Chikugo model to assess NPP under baseline and CO₂-doubling climates. The potential total net production (TNP₀) of East Asia was climatically evaluated to be 154×10⁸ t dry matter year^-1. The climatic changes induced by a doubled CO₂ concentration are predicted to increase the TNP₀ by approximately 9-15%, depending on the climatic scenario. The estimated increase in TNP₀ would be limited by the difference between the rate of shift of climatic zones and the rate of migration of vegetation formations.