TY - JOUR
T1 - The cost of misinformation in deadly conflicts
T2 - Hawk-dove games and suicidal terrorism
AU - Hanley, James E.
AU - Orbell, John
AU - Morikawa, Tomonori
PY - 2002/3
Y1 - 2002/3
N2 - The hijacking and purposeful crashing of airplanes into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, prompts questions about why the passengers and crew of those airplanes did not act to prevent these attacks, as did at least some passengers on a hijacked flight that crashed in Pennsylvania. We argue, first, that humans have an evolved cognitive bias that leads to the expectation that antagonists hope to survive conflict and, second, that highly credible information to the contrary is needed to overcome this bias. Absent such information, the passengers on at least two airplanes incorrectly interpreted the game being played as a hawk-dove version of a conflict-of-interest game, when it was actually a "suicidal terrorism" variant of that family. Given that other terrorists may have been in the air and ready to act, the airlines' policy of not informing passengers about such events could have risked disabling them from reacting forcefully when force alone was advisable.
AB - The hijacking and purposeful crashing of airplanes into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, prompts questions about why the passengers and crew of those airplanes did not act to prevent these attacks, as did at least some passengers on a hijacked flight that crashed in Pennsylvania. We argue, first, that humans have an evolved cognitive bias that leads to the expectation that antagonists hope to survive conflict and, second, that highly credible information to the contrary is needed to overcome this bias. Absent such information, the passengers on at least two airplanes incorrectly interpreted the game being played as a hawk-dove version of a conflict-of-interest game, when it was actually a "suicidal terrorism" variant of that family. Given that other terrorists may have been in the air and ready to act, the airlines' policy of not informing passengers about such events could have risked disabling them from reacting forcefully when force alone was advisable.
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U2 - 10.1017/S0730938400005712
DO - 10.1017/S0730938400005712
M3 - Review article
C2 - 16859339
AN - SCOPUS:25844443339
SN - 0730-9384
VL - 21
SP - 13
EP - 18
JO - Politics and the Life Sciences
JF - Politics and the Life Sciences
IS - 1
ER -